Global biofuel production is expanding rapidly—yet its climate credentials are facing renewed scrutiny. According to a new report by Cerulogy for Transport & Environment (T&E), biofuels are now responsible for 16% more CO₂ emissions than the fossil fuels they replace, when accounting for indirect effects such as deforestation and land-use change.
Despite being positioned as a cornerstone of clean transport policy, the data suggest that the sector may be steering the energy transition off course. Today, 32 million hectares of land—roughly the size of Italy—are dedicated to growing crops for biofuels, supplying just 4% of global transport energy demand. By 2030, this footprint is expected to expand by 60% to 52 million hectares, equivalent to the size of France. That growth trajectory places increasing pressure on land and water systems already under strain. On average, it takes 3,000 liters of water to drive 100 kilometers on biofuels, compared with just twenty liters for an electric vehicle powered by solar electricity. The report warns that as climate change exacerbates water scarcity, diverting such resources toward energy crops risks compounding the problem.
Equally troubling is biofuels’ competition with global food supply. T&E’s analysis shows that the energy content of current biofuel feedstocks could meet the minimum caloric needs of 1.3 billion people, while one-fifth of all vegetable oil produced globally is burned in vehicles rather than used for food. Every day, the equivalent of 100 million bottles of vegetable oil goes up in car exhausts. These figures highlight the deep inefficiency of using agricultural products as a transport fuel source.
The report also challenges the long-standing claim that biofuels can deliver carbon neutrality over their lifecycle. By 2030, biofuels are projected to emit 70 million tones more CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e) than the fossil fuels they replace—comparable to the annual emissions of nearly 30 million diesel cars. In contrast, using just 3% of the land currently devoted to biofuel crops for solar installations would yield the same amount of energy, enough to power almost one-third of the world’s current passenger vehicle fleet if electrified.
Despite increased attention on advanced and waste-based biofuels, 90% of global biofuel production still relies on food crops such as corn, sugarcane, and vegetable oils. In 2023 alone, the industry consumed 150 million tones of corn and 120 million tones of sugarcane and sugar beet, intensifying competition for arable land as the world faces mounting food security challenges.
Geographically, the production centers driving this expansion underscore its global reach. Brazil, one of the fastest-growing biofuels producers, recently suspended its soy moratorium, which had restricted deforestation in the Amazon for soy cultivation. The decision raises questions as the country prepares to host COP30 in 2025, where it is expected to advocate for renewable fuels. Canada and India are also ramping up production, while the U.S. remains the world’s largest producer.
The policy implications are significant. If biofuel demand rises by the projected 40% by 2030, as current national strategies suggest, the sector could undermine global climate objectives by locking in higher emissions, land degradation, and water use. T&E urges governments to redirect public funds toward electrification, efficiency measures, and genuinely renewable alternatives, warning that “otherwise, we risk doing more harm than good.”
The debate over biofuels’ role in decarbonization is no longer about potential—it’s about consequences. With evidence mounting that their environmental costs outweigh their benefits, the data call into question whether biofuels should remain part of the clean energy equation at all.
